How deep is Britain's influence on China's foreign trade?
Britain will on GMT on 23 June, held from EU referendum is of global concern, support and opposition who each hold a position, close. The results of the referendum on the British and the European Union in the basic life, work to pay taxes and other aspects, will be affected, and will also affect the international economic and political situation.
Whether to stay in Europe or off politicians, European noble coat has taken off, are in hysterical shouting in the activities to earn enough eyeballs, the EU is now a bit tasteless feeling, old Europe Germany, France to maintain traditional inherent right to rule, but the concept is different from the former Eastern new and some countries want to break this arbitrary and contradictory EU Zuan not a fist, but the cloud of sand. The euro is a big drag developed and backward countries crack more prominent.
There will be as high as 800 thousand jobs being cut! Less work!
Wages are low!
The British Labour Federation has also issued a warning that the average wage of workers will be reduced by 38 a week!
Pension, medical services suspended!
Retirement may also cause damage to the pension... The medical service (NHS) money may have to cut a cut...
Obama said that if the United Kingdom to leave the European Union, the United States to sign a trade agreement with the United States, may have to wait a long time, oh, the longest 10 years, oh.
At present, Britain, the European Union and the global economic impact of the referendum on the EU has led to a wide range of discussions. Moodie and Fitch had made it clear that if the UK off Europe, which will be lowered by the British sovereign credit rating. Because the move will have a negative impact on the UK's trade, investment, labor markets, threatening economic growth.
For China, although the British off Europe did not directly cause impact on China, but due to Britain, China and the EU and Inyo closely linked in the field of trade and finance, China will also inevitably be affected.
Britain is one of the main bridges in China's entry into the European market, and it has played a unique role both in politics and economy. Such as the first Asian infrastructure investment bank to join the European countries, first and China cooperation in the development of nuclear power projects in western developed countries, has always actively supported China's free market economy status, as the process of internationalization of the RMB important platform, and so on.
To some extent, the United Kingdom is more active than other European countries to promote and deepen the cooperation and development of China in the region. So, China is looking forward to a united Europe, rather than split, especially not want to see because of the "off Europe" and the two sides have been weakened by the "double lose" situation.
In recent years, China to the depth and breadth of British investment gradually expand, such as the purchase of Barclays, the British oil company, maintenance of his wheat (weetabix), Anglo American and Thames Water, Heathrow airport and Manchester Airport shares; CGNPC's $60 billion pounds (33.5% shareholding) investment and participate in British Hinkley point nuclear power project construction etc.. It is expected that China will invest $150 billion in infrastructure construction in the UK before 2025, citing data from the international law firm, Mason. If Britain is to take off in Europe, it is expected that China will reduce its long-term investment in the UK, because China will no longer have access to the EU market through the use of the British channel. At the same time, it is believed that other countries will take similar actions based on the same considerations.
China and Britain for many years in the field of financial cooperation closely, unique, especially in the UK to promote the process of internationalization of the RMB has made a positive contribution. In 2013, the United Kingdom to become the first and the people's Bank of China signed a currency swap agreement of western developed countries, the UK October 2014 become the first foreign government to issue RMB bonds in RMB for the first time into the British foreign exchange reserves. At present, the London Stock Exchange has launched 35 RMB bonds, RMB and foreign exchange trading in the past four years growth 6 times, 2014 overall foreign exchange transaction volume year-on-year growth of 143 percent, average daily trading volume reached $615 billion; by the end of 2014 Renminbi deposits in London reached 200 billion yuan. UK leader in RMB product innovation, help the RMB into the SDR, promote the RMB to become a reserve currency, promote the internationalization of the RMB and other fields have played an important role. Andrew Bailey, vice president of the Bank of England, has said that leaving the European Union, London will lose the right to maintain the status of the global financial center. Therefore, if the UK off Europe, London, as one of the world's top financial centers or the status of the challenge, which has a certain impact on the internationalization process of the rmb.
According to the Royal postal survey, China is now the largest overseas electricity suppliers in the UK, Chinese consumers in the UK accounted for 25% of the proportion of overseas consumer groups.
Because of the limited trade between China and Britain, we do not expect the British "off Europe" to produce violent fluctuations.
Data from the White House said that compared to the entire European Union in China Import and export in the 17% share of, the UK to China's foreign trade export share contributed only 2.6%, the share of imports contributes only 1.1%, in fact, the trade between the two countries is less.
However, business investors can still be based on rational forecast: if Britain off Europe is expected to rise again, destined to the weaker pound, a stronger dollar. Based on this, we expect that once the British "off the European" come true, the pound against the dollar exchange rate will be decreased by 15%, can also be understood for the yuan against the dollar would weaken, which may still will have an impact on the mood of Chinese investors.
However, we also believe that such an impact, if any, should also be short, and not on the Chinese financial sector, especially in terms of electricity suppliers have a fundamental impact on the prospects.